**Update October 22, 2025:** It's the final week to submit your comments in the AI Pathways Tournament, and there's still plenty of opportunity to win a share of the \$5,000 prize! Submit your comments before November 1, 2025.

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**Update September 15, 2025:** Remember to submit your comments in the AI Pathways Tournament before November 1, 2025, to be eligible for a chance to win a share of the \$5,000 commenting prize!

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We’re excited to announce the [AI Pathways Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/), part of the [Foresight Institute’s *Existential Hope*](https://foresight.org/technologies/foresight-existential-hope/) program. This tournament explores two plausible futures of AI: the Tool AI Pathway, where narrow but powerful systems strengthen human capabilities without leading to AGI, and the d/acc Pathway, which envisions decentralized and privacy-preserving systems accelerating bottom-up innovation.

These scenarios were shaped with input from experts including Vitalik Buterin, Adam Marblestone, Anton Korinek, Saffron Huang, Anthony Aguirre, Glen Weyl, Andrew Trask, Cecilia Tilli, and more. Explore the scenarios here: [https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)

Your forecasts and insights will help reveal which future is more likely. Share your reasoning for a chance to **earn part of the \$5,000 prize pool** from Foresight Institute, awarded to the top **eight contributors** as follows:

* 1st: \$1,200
* 2nd: \$1000
* 3rd: \$800
* 4th: \$600
* 5th: \$500
* 6th: \$400
* 7th: \$300
* 8th: \$200

Join the [AI Pathways Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/) and submit your comments by November 1, 2025.

![](https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/ai-pathways-social.webp)