The October *Respiratory Outlook* update provides the latest forecasts for influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and measles for the 2025–26 season in the United States. The [*Respiratory Outlook 2025/26*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

**Among the key findings:**

* Measles is expected to see lower prevalence in 2026 than in 2025, but well above the trend in recent decades, with forecasters predicting 721 cases. In 2025 there have been 1,618 cases so far, and forecasters predict 1,874 by year end.
* COVID-19 vaccinations are expected to see a decline from prior years, due to a combination of factors including changes in recommendations, reduced promotional efforts, and overall vaccine skepticism. Flu vaccinations are expected to remain largely stable from prior years, while RSV immunization coverage is expected to increase due to new products released in recent years.
* The combined and individual peak prevalence of flu, COVID-19, and RSV are expected to be somewhat lower than last year, based on peak hospitalizations per 100,000 reported by [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html). The combined prevalence is expected to be roughly 11% lower than last year's peak. The combined and individual peaks are predicted to occur in early January.

<img height="253" width="506" src="https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/image_zDMHGkz.png" />*Magnitudes in the table above represent hospitalizations per 100,000. Forecasters assign a 50/50 chance the peak will occur before or after the median date. The value in brackets represent 50% prediction intervals.*

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-October-2025)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)