Our November *Respiratory Outlook* update shares revised predictions for flu, COVID-19, and RSV this season, providing updates and new insights following our [October edition](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/40461/forecasts-for-flu-covid-19-rsv-and-measles-this-season/). The [*Respiratory Outlook 2025/26*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

**Among the key findings:**

* Weekly measles case counts have held steady at elevated levels, causing forecasters to increase their predictions for the number of measles cases in 2026, increasing their median from 721 to 959.
* Early data from the US and Canada have pointed to a higher prevalence of influenza A of subtype H3N2 this season. The predicted proportion of H3N2 subtype that will be sequenced this season has risen from below 50% to over 80%.
* Forecasters have made small adjustments to their predictions for the magnitude and timing of the peak for flu, COVID-19, RSV, and their combined burden based on early data.

![](https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_akXcKnj.png)*Weekly hospitalization rates per 100,000 according to RESP-NET along with Metaculus forecasts for the peak hospitalization rate in the 2025-26 season and the associated timing. Diamonds reflect median forecasts for the magnitude and timing of the peak, vertical bars show 50% prediction intervals for the magnitude, and horizontal bars show 50% prediction intervals for the timing of the peak. Forecasts from last month (October 24) are shown with transparency.*

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-November-2025)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)