The [next quarter of Market Pulse](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/market-pulse-26q1/) launches today, continuing to surface meaningful signal from the forecasts.
**Strong Signal**
The Q4 contest has built on [<u>previous edge</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/38782/winners-of-the-market-pulse-challenge-25q2/) identified in the series, with strong performance on a number of questions:
* [<u>Earnings forecasts</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40230/oct-dec-2025-eps-for-these-companies/) beat analysts on 5 out of 7 questions
* The community consistently beat [<u>VIX</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40044/biweekly-maximum-intraday-vix-in-q4-2025/) futures and naive benchmarks
* Predictions are calibrated on instrument performance differences
* The community called the [<u>High Yield Index</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40045/hy-oas-for-these-biweekly-periods-of-q4-2025/) increase ahead of time
* Misses are expected in financial forecasting, but were surprisingly modest in most cases
[<u>The Q4 contest</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/market-pulse-25q4/) will be over soon, with winners announced in early January.
**Get Started**
The [<u>Market Pulse Challenge 26Q1</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/market-pulse-26q1/) opens with a \$7,500 prize pool. First questions close **January 2nd**.
**Questions Include:**
* VIX maximum values: Track volatility peaks across bi-weekly periods
* Relative performance: Crude vs S\&P, Gold vs S\&P, Nasdaq vs S\&P, plus NVDA vs AAPL and NVDA vs MSFT
* Treasury yields: Forecast on the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield.
More questions to be launched on NVIDIA's forward guidance, S\&P additions, Tesla's earnings, and more.
**Join Now**
[<u>Start forecasting in Market Pulse 26Q1</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/market-pulse-26q1/) before the first questions close on January 2nd.
*Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice.*
