The *Respiratory Outlook* update for January provides the latest forecasts as the expected peak burden of flu, COVID-19, and RSV is imminent and flu is [surging](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2026/01/06/the-flu-2026-cases-symptoms/88046377007/) across the country. The [*Respiratory Outlook 2025/26*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

**Compared with the** [**December edition**](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41207/december-forecasts-for-respiratory-and-measles-this-season/)**, predictions this month show:**

* Another significant increase in predicted measles cases for 2026, as measles cases remained elevated during the off-season and holiday gatherings, with a median forecast of 2,088 cases. This is up from last month's predicted 1,396 cases and substantially above the [typical annual number of cases](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html#:~:text=Skipped%20data%20table.-,Yearly%20measles%20cases,-as%20of%20December) over the last few decades.
* The probability of a High or Very High severity flu season has risen substantially to 44%, up from 28% last month, as [flu activity is high across the country](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/usmap.html).
* Forecasters have increased their predictions for peak flu hospitalizations this season, as so far this season shows a rapid increase in incidence comparable to [last year's harsh season](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/flu-season-already-rivals-last-winters-harsh-epidemic). The predicted combined peak has shifted a week later, and COVID-19 and RSV peak burden predictions have declined somewhat after early data shows little activity.

![](https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_bxB0rj6.png)

*Weekly hospitalization rates per 100,000 according to RESP-NET along with Metaculus forecasts for the peak hospitalization rate in the 2025-26 season and the associated timing. Diamonds reflect median forecasts for the magnitude and timing of the peak, vertical bars show 50% prediction intervals for the magnitude, and horizontal bars show 50% prediction intervals for the timing of the peak. Forecasts from last month (December 15) are shown with transparency. Horizontal lines indicate the peak from the 2024-25 season.*

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-January-2026)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)