Colombia recently [announced](https://colombiareports.com/petro-gives-colombias-minimum-wage-a-23-boost/) an increase to its minimum wage of 23%, the largest in recent history and greatly exceeding the annual inflation rate. This announcement [drew criticism](https://caracol.com.co/2025/12/29/asi-reaccionan-las-centrales-de-trabajadores-y-empresarios-frente-al-aumento-del-salario-minimo/) from business leaders and economists, while union leaders have praised the increase, which came in well above their [negotiating position](https://colombiaone.com/2025/12/23/colombia-minimum-wage-negotiations-update-2025/). It comes as a surprise to many, including many companies who [prepared for a budget increase](https://www.portafolio.co/economia/empleo/salario-minimo-para-el-2026-aumento-del-23-descuadro-la-caja-de-las-empresas-para-iniciar-el-ano-485466) of 10% to 15%, as well as to the Metaculus community, who collectively assigned a 6% chance to an increase of above 20%. However, some forecasters had more probability on this outcome, and have earned their share of the \$1,000 prize. Without further ado, here are the winners of the Colombia Wage Watch Tournament, who each won \$200:

1. [chlyota2@gmail.com](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/258554/)
2. [Camargo\_9509](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/279255/)
3. [AlexK864](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/255281/)
4. [anice](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/131185/)
5. [rcancinom](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/279814/)

Congratulations to the prize winners and thank you to everyone who participated! We will be in touch with prize winners to arrange payments.

Thank you to the [Asociación Colombiana de Actuarios](https://actuarios.org.co/) for sponsoring this competition, a first of its kind initiative to better track and anticipate predictions regarding this important decision.

*As described on the tournament page, this tournament featured only one question and therefore assigned prizes of \$200 to each of the five top-scoring participants.*