The *Respiratory Outlook* update for February provides the latest forecasts for record measles cases and the imminent RSV peak. The[ *<u>Respiratory Outlook 2025/26</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

**Compared with the** [**<u>January edition</u>**](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41513/january-forecasts-for-respiratory-and-measles-this-season/)**, predictions this month show:**

* Another significant increase in predicted measles cases for 2026, as cases this year continue to rise dramatically, with [<u>1,136 confirmed cases</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html#:~:text=Skipped%20data%20table.-,Yearly%20measles%20cases,-as%20of%20December). Forecasters now expect >5,000 cases this year, up from last month's predicted 2,088 cases and substantially above the[ <u>typical annual number of cases</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html#:~:text=Skipped%20data%20table.-,Yearly%20measles%20cases,-as%20of%20December) over the last few decades.
* The probability of a High or Very High severity flu season has lowered again, back down to 17% after last month’s 44%, as[ <u>flu activity</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/usmap.html) has begun to subside and a second wave is seen as unlikely.&nbsp;
* Forecasters estimate that hospitalizations for flu and COVID-19 have already reached their [<u>peak</u>](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluhospchars.html), but RSV peak estimates are projected for late February.&nbsp;

<img height="391" width="651" src="https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_vnPqm37.png" />*Weekly hospitalization rates per 100,000 according to RESP-NET along with Metaculus forecasts for the peak hospitalization rate in the 2025-26 season and the associated timing. Diamonds reflect median forecasts for the magnitude and timing of the peak, vertical bars show 50% prediction intervals for the magnitude, and horizontal bars show 50% prediction intervals. Forecasts from last month (January 8) are shown with transparency. Horizontal lines indicate the peak from the 2024-25 season. COVID-19 magnitude forecasts have used the Pros-only aggregate due to erroneous community forecasts.*

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-February-2026)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)