We’re pleased to congratulate the winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge, a student forecasting competition run in partnership with the RAND Forecasting Initiative.

Forecasters made predictions across 21 policy-relevant questions, including topics such as North Korea’s nuclear testing, coup risk in Africa, and Russia’s economic growth. Forecasters were also incentivized to share commentary identifying the [<u>Key Factors</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43470/key-factors-explained/) that could drive future outcomes for contest questions.&nbsp;

Congratulations to the top finishers on the accuracy leaderboard!&nbsp;

1. [**kenneth\_c**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/177179/?mode=comments)**:** \$927
2. [**BlakeDuvall**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/176024/)**:** \$785
3. [**Hippopotamus\_bartholomeus**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/247921/)**:** \$774
4. [**kv\_bhasin**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/261160/)**:** \$752
5. [**cnilemc**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/174246/)**:** \$615

To see the final leaderboard and other winners taking home a portion of the \$7,000 accuracy prize pool, visit the [<u>tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/rand/) page and scroll down to the leaderboard.&nbsp;

We’re also pleased to recognize the winners of the Key Factor commentary prizes. These prizes were awarded for strong comments that identified important drivers of future outcomes and explained how those factors should affect forecasts.

| Username                                                                           | Winning Comments | Prize   |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------- | ------- |
| [**Bas\_**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/280846/)                    | 13               | \$1,600 |
| [**gabrielthomison**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/280256/)          | 6                | \$1,200 |
| [**bmazze99**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/280250/)                 | 2                | \$400   |
| [**david.choldin**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/280369/)            | 1                | \$200   |
| [**kenneth\_c**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/177179/?mode=comments) | 1                | \$200   |
| [**kv\_bhasin**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/261160/)               | 1                | \$200   |

Per the tournament rules, commentary prizes are limited to registered university students and capped at \$1,600 per person.

Beyond the cash prizes, RAND will reach out directly to selected participants about **career-development opportunities connected to the RAND Forecasting Initiative**, including:&nbsp;

* RAND Pro Forecaster status
* appearance in the RFI blog
* invitations to select RAND events and networking opportunities

Metaculus will contact prize winners with next steps for prize distribution.

### Top forecasters not eligible for prizes

Prize eligibility was limited to forecasters enrolled at a college or university, but we want to congratulate the forecasters who lead overall. (Note: Top performers for this competition are not eligible for medals, as the contest was not promoted to the main feed, given its focus.) 

| Rank | Forecaster                 | Total Score |
| ---- | -------------------------- | ----------- |
| 1    | Adonis                     | 700.224     |
| 2    | benshindel                 | 564.034     |
| 3    | kenneth\_c                 | 538.561     |
| 4    | deceptive\_stroke          | 500.557     |
| 5    | BlakeDuvall                | 495.644     |
| 6    | Hippopotamus\_bartholomeus | 492.138     |
| 7    | DavidNash                  | 489.327     |
| 8    | kv\_bhasin                 | 485.194     |
| 9    | exmateriae                 | 439.639     |
| 10   | cnilemc                    | 438.565     |



***A note on the commentary prize total:** The initial commentary prize pool totaled \$3,000, but it was increased to \$3,800 after RFI reviewers identified more qualifying comments from eligible students than initially anticipated.*