In May 2026, the philanthropic organization [<u>Coefficient Giving</u>](https://coefficientgiving.org/), commissioned us to produce independent forecasts on the disease prevention technologies most likely to deliver impact over the next two decades. Fifteen Pro Forecasters, among the most accurate forecasters on Metaculus, analyzed 10 questions across four areas: tuberculosis (TB) vaccines (both M72 and MTBVAC), malaria gene drives, and microneedle delivery systems.

The Pro Forecasters contributed forecasts, written reasoning, and importance ratings for every key factor shaping each outcome on a 0-to-100 scale. Pros exclusively used public information and did not have access to internal sponsor data.&nbsp;

What follows are key takeaways from the resulting report, an aggregate of all forecasts weighted equally (and you can find the full report [here](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Frontiers-Disease-Prevention-Report-2026)):

* The M72 vaccine is on track to become the first new TB vaccine licensed in over a century. Pros forecast licensure around February 2032 with \~45% Phase 3 efficacy, but GSK's unresolved adjuvant supply standoff is likely to delay rollout. Pros forecast 168 million people vaccinated by 2040, with a 34% chance of \<200k.
* The MTBVAC vaccine’s path forward for adults and adolescents hinges on the current Phase 2 trial, for which Pros estimate a 35% efficacy result, with a median lower 95% confidence bound less than zero. Ultimately its widest adoption depends on the infant Phase 3 trial, which could position it as a replacement for the currently prevalent BCG vaccine. Pros forecast a median 226 million people vaccinated by 2040, but with a long left tail toward zero.
* Gene drive mosquito releases are not technically constrained. Pros consistently identify political incentive asymmetry as the binding constraint, with regulators facing career risk for approval. The first release is forecast for April 2036, but formal bans are likely to follow, projected in April 2038.&nbsp;
* Microneedle patch vaccines are closest to delivering real-world impact, with Pros forecasting first approval in June 2032. Manufacturing scale-up is the main hurdle between licensure and patients, but forecasters do not anticipate additional multi-year delays from supply or commercial disputes.

The insights surfaced in this forecasting project may help to support Coefficient Giving’s funding decisions within their global health portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;

To learn more about how Metaculus works with clients on private forecasting projects, visit our **Services page** [**here**](https://www.metaculus.com/services/)**.**

### [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Frontiers-Disease-Prevention-Report-2026).