Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.
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The Labor Automation Tournament has a Comment Prize pool of \$5,000, distributed among the best 8 comments on its forecasting questions. **The deadline is September 1.** Metaculus forecasts currently diverge from US government projections on overall employment through 2035 by more than 7%, and forecasters believe AI is the primary driver underlying this 7.5-point gap. Some of the sharpest reasoning behind that discrepancy, viewable as comments, comes from our Pro Forecasters. Patrick Molgaard has been writing about adoption speed and why some "at risk" jobs might have a longer tail than people assume. Ľuboš Saloky has laid out the case for a redistribution from labor to capital as AI scales.  Good arguments among many others -- all worth reading as you refine your own views. You can find those in the comments section of any forecast as part of the Labor Tournament, as well as in the [<u>Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43247/labor-automation-forecasting-hub-forum/). The following image shows the beginning of an exhaustive comment left by Pro Forecaster Haiku, which can be read in full [here](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43247/labor-automation-forecasting-hub-forum/#comment-925796):  Note: Pros aren’t eligible for the Comment Prize, so you’re competing with other, non-pro-forecaster members of the Metaculus community. Clear reasoning is what counts for the comment prize -- not whether the forecast is correct. Commenters are ranked on both quality and quantity of their contributions. Head over to the [<u>Labor Automation Tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/) to learn more about the tournament’s prize structure, make forecasts, and leave comments. Find the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub [here](https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/).