Three months since the launch of the [<u>Labor Automation Forecasting Hub</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/), the big-picture view hasn’t changed, with forecasters expecting substantial AI-driven job change over the next decade. But they have shifted in ways that mostly push the near-term picture toward less disruption and the long-term forecasts toward more.&nbsp;

### Key takeaways:

* Education saw the biggest moves of anything on the Hub. Forecasts for degrees awarded fell sharply, especially for 2035, where expected [<u>humanities</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42853/change-in-us-humanities-bachelors-relative-to-2024-25/) degrees are down \~11pp, [<u>STEM</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42852/change-in-us-stem-bachelors-relative-to-2024-25/) degrees are down \~5pp, and even [<u>community-college/trade</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42856/change-in-us-community-collegetrade-school-degrees/) credentials are down \~11pp since April. Forecasters increasingly expect AI to erode the payoff of a degree.
* The 2030 forecasts are less disruptive, but forecasters call it a delay, not a reprieve. Expected [<u>new-grad unemployment</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42212/new-grad-unemployment-in-these-years/) and [<u>long-term unemployment</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41313/us-long-term-unemployment-in-these-years/) both ticked down, since a clear AI-driven jobs hit hasn't shown up in the data yet, but Pro Forecasters still expect the pain to arrive later in the decade.
* A “broken junior pipeline” is quietly reshaping pay. Rather than mass layoffs, forecasters expect entry-level roles to disappear. This is predicted to push [<u>median wages</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42216/change-in-us-hourly-median-wage-relative-to-2025/) up, as the remaining workforce skews more senior.
* The evidence that AI is driving these changes is stronger. On the question of what happens to [<u>employment if AI progress stalls</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43028/us-employment-change-vs-2025-given-stagnant-ai-benchmarks/), the 2035 forecast moved from −3.2% all the way to flat -- implying the declines forecasters expect elsewhere really are being pinned on AI, not other economic forces.
* The effects diverged by occupation. The steepest downgrades hit service and manual roles by 2035 (as robotics timelines shorten), while deeply negative knowledge-work forecasts ([<u>lawyers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42618/lawyer-law-clerk-employment-share-change/#comments), [<u>software developers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42613/software-developer-employment-share-change/#comments)) were revised upward off their worst-case levels. [<u>Engineers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42614/us-engineer-change-vs-2025/) flipped from a slight decline to growth.

Read the complete breakdown, including every question and the forecasters' reasoning, in the [**full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Labor-Hub-Updates-July-2026).

### Have a different view?

Add your own forecast in the [<u>Labor Automation Tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/) -- and don’t forget the September 1 deadline for the \$5000 [<u>Comment Prize</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/44751/labor-automation-tournament-comment-prize/) pool for the most useful rationales! Note that Pro Forecasters are not eligible for prizes.