Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras!
8
Announcing the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/">[Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-fall-2026/)</a>!<p>Each week we'll release a few questions covering current events. Forecast well to earn a share of the \$2,500 forecasting prize and a custom Metaculus-branded die. Contribute to the discussion to compete for an additional \$2,500 awarded to the tournament's top 8 commenters.</p><p>The first batch is:</p> * [Will the United States attack Oman before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45230/will-the-united-states-attack-oman-before-2027/) * [Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45383/who-will-be-awarded-the-2026-nobel-peace-prize/) * [Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45464/will-fews-net-classify-any-area-of-sudan-as-experiencing-famine-before-2027/) * [How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45381/how-many-major-atlantic-hurricanes-will-occur-in-the-2026-atlantic-season/) * [What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45262/1st-round-vote-share-for-iotova-in-2026-bulgarian-presidential-election/) [](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43345/2026-colombian-presidential-election-winner/#comments) Questions are currently set to Upcoming. You can start forecasting now, and your predictions will be live as soon as questions open. (Scoring is determined only by the open period.) [](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43311/verdict-in-musk-v-altman-et-al/#comments) <p>The Community Prediction will go head-to-head against guest forecaster <a href="https://x.com/kikollan"><u>Kiko Llaneras</u>.</a> If the Community Prediction is more accurate than our guest, an additional \$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.</p>Kiko, in his own words: <blockquote> I'm [Kiko Llaneras](https://x.com/kikollan), an author and data journalist at [EL PAÍS](https://english.elpais.com/), where I analyze, explain, and predict many things, from [elections](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2023-07-19/who-will-win-spains-national-election-on-sunday-this-is-what-the-polls-are-saying.html) to [the World Cup](https://english.elpais.com/sports/2022-11-24/who-will-win-the-qatar-world-cup-predict-the-winner-with-this-simulator.html) to [the pandemic](https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-12-29/how-spains-sixth-wave-compares-more-cases-than-ever-but-nearly-half-the-number-of-hospital-admissions.html). I'm the author of [*Think Clearly*](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/), a bestseller in Spain translated into English, Chinese and more. I've worked with Metaculus before, on [predicting elections around the world](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/InternationalHub/) and on [a Spanish-language tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/c/kiko/). This time I'm competing against the community in the Metaculus Cup, and I'll put a number on it: I give myself about a 10% chance of winning. </blockquote> <p>The Metaculus Cup is also a great place to submit your own questions, helping the community grow and keeping Metaculus ahead of breaking news (find our question writing guide <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/">here</a>). Write intriguing questions that attract forecaster engagement and you'll be in the running for our <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20025/new-scores-new-leaderboard-new-medals/">question-writing medals</a>.</p> <p>**Join the tournament and learn more** <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-fall-2026/">**here**</a>**.**</p>