It’s been 3 months since the last[ <u>Labor Automation Forecasting Hub</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/) update. This quarter brought the biggest capability jump since launch, with OpenAI’s Astra (GPT-6) and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5. But the latest data still shows little to no AI-driven shock to jobs, and forecasters have moved their near-term numbers toward less disruption. Wages are the exception.

## Key takeaways:

* **Capability is outpacing diffusion.** Forecasters now expect 2030[ <u>employment</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41307/) to sit 0.7% below 2025, up from 1.9% below in July. The 2035 forecast moved from -4.4% to -3.3%. Pros point to a Federal Reserve[ <u>note</u>](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-ai-buildout-and-the-economy-publicly-available-data-to-assess-ais-impact-20260717.html) describing the economy as in a “buildout phase,” with rising AI investment and little effect on jobs so far. Still, plenty are “waiting for the other shoe to drop.”
* **Knowledge work forecasts eased back from their worst-case levels.** 2035 forecasts for[ <u>lawyers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42618/) went from -13.7% to -10.3%,[ <u>software developers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42613/) from -13.8% to -11.0%, and[ <u>financial specialists</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42612/) from -15.2% to -12.9%. Expected[ <u>new-grad unemployment</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42212/) for 2035 fell from 13.2% to 11.8%.
* **Service and physical jobs look more exposed.**[ <u>Restaurant servers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42623/) flipped from growth to decline, with 2035 going from +0.7% to -6.2% as kiosks, delivery and drive-through voice AI spread.[ <u>Laborers and movers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42626/) for 2030 fell from -0.9% to -3.0% as robot sales climb. Forecasters expect the first effect to be hiring that never happens rather than layoffs.
* **Wage forecasts dropped.** 11 of 20 wage and income questions moved toward more disruption. The 2035[ <u>median wage</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42216/) fell from +4.9% to +3.3%, and[ <u>designer wages</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43110/) from +8.6% to +4.3%. This walks back July’s “broken junior pipeline” story. Pros now give more weight to weak real wage growth, more people competing for the remaining jobs, and gains flowing to capital (labor’s share of income is near a postwar low).
* **The AI stagnation questions may soon be annulled.** Astra scores 167 on the[ <u>Epoch Capabilities Index</u>](https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph\&tab=release-date). If the next model hits 170, AI progress hasn’t stagnated by the questions’ own definition, and the conditional questions can’t resolve.

Read the full breakdown, with every question and the forecasters’ reasoning, in the [<u>**full report**</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Labor-Hub-Updates-October-2026).

## Have a different view?

Add your own forecast in the[ <u>Labor Automation Tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/).