<small>This question series was launched in August 2018, but sadly did not have a discussion post, so here it is. Some of the text is adapted from the first question in the series and was originally written by user @googleplexbyte.</small>

The [Fermi Paradox question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) aims to estimate input parameters for [Drake's equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). It was inspired by a 2018 paper, [Dissolving the Fermi Paradox](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord, in which the result of Drake's Equation was estimated using a [Monte Carlo Simulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) rather than point estimates. This led to a much higher probability that we are in fact alone in the observable universe, hence the title.

The paper discusses estimates for the equation's parameters and settles on these distributions:

1. \(R_∗\) log-uniform from 1 to 100.
2. \(f_p\) log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
3. \(n_e\) log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
4. \(f_l\) log-normal rate, \(1 − e^{−λVt}\) (giving \(f_l\) mean 0.5 and median - 0.63).
5. \(f_i\) log-uniform from 0.001 to 1.
6. \(f_c\) log-uniform from 0.01 to 1.
7. \(L\) log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000.

But maybe Metaculus can provide better estimates for these distribution. Hence the 7 questions:

1. [1st parameter \(R∗\): What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
2. [2nd parameter \(f_p\): What fraction of stars form planets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338)
3. [3rd parameter \(n_e\): What is the average number of habitable planets per star?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339)
4. [4th parameter \(f_l\): On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340)
5. [5th parameter \(f_i\): On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341)
6. [6th parameter \(f_c\): What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342)
7. [7th parameter \(L\): For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343)