This year again, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt), [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc), and [Sigal Samuel](https://twitter.com/SigalSamuel) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have made a number of  predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. [Their set of 2021 forecasts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) is high-profile modelling of excellent epistemic norms.

We've decided to again take their prediction list, and make it into a [Metaculus series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--future-perfect-2021). The questions are in the process of being written in a form suitable for Metaculus, check this page again for an updated list.

**If you're landing here from the Vox article,** welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.

*Here are [the questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--future-perfect-2021) (links to the Metaculus questions to be added as they are written):*

- Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20

- [Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6317/biden-cabinet-appointments-by-2022/)

- At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect

- [No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/)

- Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range

- [The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/)

- [US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/)

- The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more

- 100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April

- Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year

- A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge

- The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open

- The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement

- LDP continues to govern Japan

- CDU continues to govern Germany

- [India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/)

- At least three new basic income pilots will be launched

- No more countries will leave the EU

- An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology

- Global carbon emissions will increase

- [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/)

- Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent

A post on the 2020 version of the series can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3475/future-perfect-2020-series/), with the questions available [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--future-perfect-2020).