As our [new Community Shaper, researcher Michael Aird](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7438/hi-im-the-new-nuclear-risk-community-shaper/) shared on our [blog](https://metaculus.medium.com/securing-a-flourishing-future-by-forecasting-nuclear-risks-4ebd0464327e) last week, today marks the first day of the [Nuclear Risk Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). This project, created in partnership with Michael and the team at [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), will be the first hosted within our new [Flourishing Futures Cause](https://www.metaculus.com/cause/flourishing-futures/), a forecasting space dedicated to protecting and ensuring a future where all can thrive.
Round 1 consists of 27 questions spanning across five key nuclear risk themes:

- State Arsenals
- Armed Conflict
- Initiation of Nuclear Conflict
- Escalation and Targeting
- Climate and Famine Effects

Later rounds will also include questions on Policies for Nuclear Weapons Use, Technological Developments, and Interventions.
We aim to map the future technological, military, scientific, and policy space around this critically important topic, and prioritize and identify new opportunities for effectively reducing nuclear risk. The forecasts from this tournament will inform Rethink Priorities’ research and will be provided to researchers, policymakers, and philanthropic funders.
Several questions are ready for forecasting today:

- [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)
- [How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2023/)
- [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/non-test-nuclear-detonation-fatality--2023/)

The remainder are open for comments for a 48 hour period to allow for comments before forecasting begins.

The overall starting prize pool for this tournament is $2,500, with $1,500 dedicated to accurate forecasts on the calibration questions within the tournament over the next two years with prizes distributed according to [our tournament scoring rules](https://metaculus.medium.com/aligning-incentives-for-forecast-accuracy-relevance-and-efficacy-a-new-paradigm-for-metaculus-26b0e79616cb), and a $1000 prize pool for the best [Fortified Essays](https://metaculus.medium.com/aligning-incentives-for-forecast-accuracy-relevance-and-efficacy-a-new-paradigm-for-metaculus-26b0e79616cb) submitted in response to prompts and judging criteria that will be announced later in the summer. Fortified Essays will combine qualitative and quantitative insight and will be explicitly tied to long-term questions. Though these long-term questions will not resolve by the end of the tournament (December 31, 2023), they provide highly valuable information, and the reasoning that informs a participant’s forecasts on those questions can also be used in and rewarded via the participant’s Fortified Essays.

As always in our [Forecasting Causes framework](https://metaculus.medium.com/metaculus-announces-forecasting-causes-776473f42e38), you can participate in a number of valuable ways:

- Join the [Nuclear Risk Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/) and make forecasts. We encourage all forecasters who choose to take part in this project to take their time with these questions and consider multiple sources of information, given the gravity of the topic. For this, we thank you in advance!
- Share your expertise, brainstorm forecasting questions, and update the community with the latest nuclear news in the [Flourishing Futures Discussion Forum](https://www.metaculus.com/forum/flourishing-futures-forum/).
- Increase forecaster rewards by becoming a monthly [Supporter](https://www.metaculus.com/cause/flourishing-futures/).
- Reach out to researchers and experts in nuclear security to enlist their help furthering this cause by generating new shared knowledge on the Metaculus platform.

We thank every forecaster in advance for your contributions, and our partners at Rethink Priorities for their collaboration. 

You can read more about the background of this tournament in Michael’s related [post in the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CDc6KaysxkvLWPN4n/announcing-the-nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament).