The following events will be interesting not just to forecasters, but will be interesting *especially* to forecasters, as they explore the intersection of prediction, modeling, research, and policy. Click through to learn more. 

**[An open panel discussion and Q&A](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-metaculus-open-panel-discussion-how-forecasts-inform-covid-19-policy-tickets-174479742607) with Virginia Department of Health officials and University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute researchers**<br />
*Tue, October 5, 2021 @ 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET*<br />
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**[A short presentation and Q&A](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/forecasting-nuclear-risk-with-rethink-priorities-michael-aird-tickets-178347812107) with Rethink Priorities researcher Michael Aird on nuclear risk and how Metaculus forecasts inform his work**<br />
*Sat, October 9, 2021 @ 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET*
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**From the event descriptions:**
### How Forecasts Inform COVID-19 Policy

Since March 2020, Metaculus has provided forecasting and modeling resources to public health professionals as they've made crucial decisions in tracking and combating COVID-19. These efforts include the ongoing [Keep Virginia Safe](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/vdh/) and the recently concluded [Virginia Lightning Round ](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/valightning/)forecasting tournaments, which were developed in partnership with the [Virginia Department of Health](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/metaculus-and-vdh-launch-the-keep-virginia-safe-forecasting-tournament/) and the [University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/), and were designed to enhance COVID-19 modeling efforts while contributing to the ongoing public health policy conversation in Virginia.

But how exactly are these forecasts used to inform COVID-19 policy? In this panel discussion and Q&A, presenters will share how the VDH and UVA Biocomplexity Institute teams first convened and how they currently collaborate, offering a behind-the-scenes look at how tournament questions are formulated---and ultimately, how they support public health policy. During Q&A, the audience will have an opportunity to engage with the public health officials and researchers who make use of forecaster predictions.

In addition to other panel members from the VDH and UVA teams, attendees will hear from

-   [Justin Crow](https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-crow-55859912/), VDH Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology and superforecaster
-   [Bryan Lewis](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/person/bryan-lewis), Computational Epidemiologist and Public-Health Lead at the Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division of the Biocomplexity Institute
-   [Srinivasan Venkatramanan](http://biocomplexity.prod.acquia-sites.com/person/srinivasan-venkatramanan), Research Assistant Professor at the Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division of the Biocomplexity Institute

**[RSVP here!](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-metaculus-open-panel-discussion-how-forecasts-inform-covid-19-policy-tickets-174479742607)**
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### Forecasting Nuclear Risk with Rethink Priorities' Michael Aird
How likely is nuclear conflict in the near- and long-term? What risk does nuclear conflict pose for extreme outcomes that could lead to existential catastrophe? This event is an opportunity to learn about the research and the aggregated community forecasting meant to increase our understanding on these critical questions and to help us reduce their associated risks.

Speaker Michael Aird's [work with Rethink Priorities](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HGWvBXZpHwk5TSvg8/overview-of-rethink-priorities-work-on-risks-from-nuclear) is aimed at informing funders, policymakers, researchers, and other actors regarding the extent to which they should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear weapons, as well as the most effective ways to mitigate these risks.

This event will consist of a short presentation on:

-   Michael's current research
-   How forecasts in the [Nuclear Risk forecasting tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/) will inform and be incorporated into his research
-   How he expects this to contribute to a more flourishing near- and long-term future

The presentation will be followed by a longer Q&A session that could touch on topics like

-   How forecasting could be used more frequently and effectively in research and policymaking
-   The importance and potential limitations of forecasting on long-range or catastrophe-related questions

Round 2 of the Nuclear Risk tournament launches next week. For those who have already made forecasts, this event offers a fantastic opportunity to find out how tournament predictions are being put to work on key policy questions. And for those who haven't yet predicted in the tournament, it's a great time to [get started](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/).

**[Reserve your spot here!](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/forecasting-nuclear-risk-with-rethink-priorities-michael-aird-tickets-178347812107)**