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Public Figures

About

Curious how accurate public figures are in their predictions and promises? Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims because we believe they contribute to a more informative, more useful public conversation. Contribute to this project by proposing new figures, submitting their public predictions, and linking relevant Metaculus forecasts.

Add a figure

Is there a public figure you would like to see added to Metaculus? Propose new figures in the comments of the public figure suggestions page.

Report a prediction

Did you see a public figure make a claim about what will happen in the future? Navigate to that public figure's page and click Report Prediction to add the details of their prediction. (You'll have the opportunity to also link any relevant Metaculus questions.)

Link a forecast

Do you want to compare a public figure prediction to a relevant Metaculus question? Navigate to the public figure prediction and click the 'Link Existing Question' button. What about if no relevant question exists? Click 'Create a Linked Forecast' and submit your own question.

For more details on how to use this tool and contribute to this project, click here.

Initiatives

Daron Acemoglu

0 Predictions

Nathan Benaich

2 Predictions

Yoshua Bengio

1 Prediction

Andrew Ng

1 Prediction

Yann LeCun

1 Prediction

Stuart Russell

0 Predictions

Jai Bhavnani

1 Prediction

Vinod Khosla

1 Prediction

Ezra Klein

1 Prediction

Terence Tao

1 Prediction

Katja Grace

1 Prediction

Sam Altman

1 Prediction

Geoffrey Hinton

2 Predictions

Amjad Masad

1 Prediction

Mustafa Suleyman

2 Predictions

Ted Cruz

3 Predictions

Ajeya Cotra

3 Predictions

AI Impacts — Expert Survey

3 Predictions

Sheryl Sandberg

1 Prediction

James Acton

2 Predictions

Oleksiy Arestovych

3 Predictions

Gary Marcus

6 Predictions

Autocrat Public Figures Series

Paul Christiano

3 Predictions

Mark Hertling

2 Predictions

Mark Lutter

1 Prediction

Gideon Rachman

1 Prediction

Marc Andreessen

1 Prediction

Sarah Taber

1 Prediction

Larry Summers

4 Predictions

Anders Åslund

3 Predictions

Daniel Uhlfelder

1 Prediction

Daniel Mitchell

1 Prediction

Vernor Vinge

1 Prediction

Jesse Watters

1 Prediction

Richard Epstein

3 Predictions

Hank Green

6 Predictions

Dmitri Alperovich

1 Prediction

Jerome Powell

1 Prediction

Rand Paul

1 Prediction

Andrew Forrest

1 Prediction

Scott Adams

11 Predictions

Brian Riedl

1 Prediction

Francis Fukuyama

3 Predictions

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

5 Predictions

Nicolás Maduro

2 Predictions

Alexander Lukashenko

2 Predictions

Maxim Lott

7 Predictions

Robin Hanson

4 Predictions

Jair Bolsonaro

4 Predictions

The Institute for the Study of War

1 Prediction

Thomas de Waal

1 Prediction

Samuel Ramani

2 Predictions

Bryan Caplan

2 Predictions

Oleg Deripaska

1 Prediction

Michael Kofman

1 Prediction

Sergej Sumlenny

2 Predictions

Samo Burja

1 Prediction

Marco Rubio

4 Predictions

Richard Hanania

2 Predictions

Xi Jinping

5 Predictions

Vladimir Putin

4 Predictions

Kim Jong-un

5 Predictions

Scott Aaronson

3 Predictions

The Economist

27 Predictions

Tom Chivers

11 Predictions

Financial Times

8 Predictions

Carl Shulman

2 Predictions

Erik Hoel

25 Predictions

Scott Alexander

86 Predictions

Rodney Brooks

3 Predictions

Ray Kurzweil

2 Predictions

Eliezer Yudkowsky

5 Predictions

Holden Karnofsky

3 Predictions

William MacAskill

3 Predictions

Toby Ord

3 Predictions

Dylan Matthews

29 Predictions

Sigal Samuel

12 Predictions

Kelsey Piper

24 Predictions

Matthew Yglesias

91 Predictions

Jeff Bezos

2 Predictions

Donald Trump

1 Prediction

Elon Musk

31 Predictions

Joe Biden

20 Predictions