Curious how accurate public figures are in their predictions and promises? Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims because we believe they contribute to a more informative, more useful public conversation. Contribute to this project by proposing new figures, submitting their public predictions, and linking relevant Metaculus forecasts.

Add a figure

Is there a public figure you would like to see added to Metaculus? Propose new figures in the comments of the public figure suggestions page.

Report a prediction

Did you see a public figure make a claim about what will happen in the future? Navigate to that public figure's page and click Report Prediction to add the details of their prediction. (You'll have the opportunity to also link any relevant Metaculus questions.)

Link a forecast

Do you want to compare a public figure prediction to a relevant Metaculus question? Navigate to the public figure prediction and click the 'Link Existing Question' button. What about if no relevant question exists? Click 'Create a Linked Forecast' and submit your own question.

For more details on how to use this tool and contribute to this project, click here.