Public Figures

About

Curious how accurate public figures are in their predictions and promises? Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims because we believe they contribute to a more informative, more useful public conversation. Contribute to this project by proposing new figures, submitting their public predictions, and linking relevant Metaculus forecasts.

Add a figure

Is there a public figure you would like to see added to Metaculus? Propose new figures in the comments of the public figure suggestions page.

Report a prediction

Did you see a public figure make a claim about what will happen in the future? Navigate to that public figure's page and click Report Prediction to add the details of their prediction. (You'll have the opportunity to also link any relevant Metaculus questions.)

Link a forecast

Do you want to compare a public figure prediction to a relevant Metaculus question? Navigate to the public figure prediction and click the 'Link Existing Question' button. What about if no relevant question exists? Click 'Create a Linked Forecast' and submit your own question.

For more details on how to use this tool and contribute to this project, click here.

Initiatives

James Acton

Gideon Rachman

Samuel Ramani

Thomas de Waal

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Jeff Bezos

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Nate Silver

Matthew Yglesias

Erik Hoel

Sigal Samuel

Kelsey Piper

Mark Lutter

Toby Ord

Dylan Matthews

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Joe Biden

Mark Hertling

Holden Karnofsky

Financial Times

The Economist

Richard Hanania

Marco Rubio

Jair Bolsonaro

Paul Christiano

Kamala Harris

Samo Burja

Kim Jong-un

Scott Alexander

William MacAskill

Vladimir Putin

Scott Aaronson

Sergej Sumlenny

Robin Hanson

Carl Shulman

Ray Kurzweil

Michael Kofman

Maxim Lott

Xi Jinping

Rodney Brooks

Brian Riedl

Scott Adams

Hank Green

Andrew Forrest

Richard Epstein

Daniel Uhlfelder

Tom Chivers

Rand Paul

Jesse Watters

Anders Åslund

Larry Summers

Jerome Powell

Vernor Vinge

Sarah Taber

Dmitri Alperovich

Daniel Mitchell

Marc Andreessen

Oleg Deripaska

Bryan Caplan

The Institute for the Study of War

Alexander Lukashenko

Nicolás Maduro

Francis Fukuyama

Autocrat Public Figures Series

23 Forecasts

Gary Marcus

Oleksiy Arestovych

Sheryl Sandberg