Trustworthy News Cause Update: 10 December 2021

Today we're introducing a new Cause area: Trustworthy News. In an increasingly complex world, it can be difficult to know which information and news sources to trust. Here at Metaculus, we aim to help reshape the incentives and accountability infrastructure around public influence and public knowledge. To accomplish this, we are building empirically grounded forecasting tools and products designed to bring science-inspired frameworks into practical use in the public domain. We are also forging partnerships with organizations that share our goals in this area.

Increasing Accountability with Public Figure Predictions

An important (early) example of our work in this area is our Public Figure Predictions project, which provides a crowdsourced, transparent feedback mechanism that engages our forecasting community in the public discourse on important topics, and hold influential entities accountable for their predictions. We welcome your input and participation!

Modeling What "Good News" Looks Like in the Metaculus Journal

Another key project is the recently launched Metaculus Journal, in which we publish deep dives on science, tech, policy, and politics with analysis supported by testable predictions. We're very excited to keep experimenting with this new format.

Announcing the Global Trends 2022 Tournament with The Economist

Last but not least, as 2022 approaches, we're happy to announce that we're again partnering with The Economist to forecast key events in the year ahead, in the Global Trends 2022 Tournament! Just as last year, the Economist's Data Journalism team our offering the top 5 performers an annual subscription as a token of appreciation for your participation.

We always applaud news organizations that cite crowd predictions, and plan to continue to develop much more integration with the media in the future.