435 forecasters

Will at least 50K civilians die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022?

10%chance

10%chance

Ambiguous

Ambiguous

The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 23, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 26, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Despair and destruction: Civilians in Ukraine’s eastern strongholds struggle as Russia advances

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Russian glide bomb attack in eastern Ukraine kills at least 24 people waiting to collect pensions

PBS NewsHour•Sep 9, 2025

"Brutally savage" Russian strike kills over 20 people in east Ukraine as pensions were handed out, Zelenskyy says

CBS•Sep 9, 2025

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