209 comments
1.5k forecasters
Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 26, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2023
Resolved:Feb 2, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 26, 2022
When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
19 Feb 2030
(28 Dec 2027 - Mar 2032)
19 Feb 2030
(28 Dec 2027 - Mar 2032)
660 forecasters
Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?
12% chance
140
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
6% chance
1.8k