Related Question on Metaculus:
Vladimir Vladmirovich Putin has been the president of the Russian Federation since 2012, with a previous term from 2000 to 2008. President Putin's presidential term is expected to last until 2024. In February 2022 in response to the invasion of Ukraine thousands of Russians demonstrants took the streets and squares of Russian cities. As the New York Times report:
“While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home.” Russia is the largest country and still maintains the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. Its internal instability can be a huge risk to global security.
Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are met:
Vladimir Putin is president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023.
The Russian Federation controls at least 90% of the territory it controlled in January 2022.
This question will resolve as Yes even if the legitimacy of his presidency is called into question, as long as he has de facto control of the office, for example if he is impeached and removed from office by the Federal Assembly but there are disputes whether this is valid and he manages to stay in power. If there are internal clashes or a civil war and it is not clear who is in charge, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
"The de facto boundaries of a country are defined by the area that its government is actually able to enforce its laws in, and to defend against encroachments by other countries that may also claim the same territory de jure. The Durand Line is an example of a de facto boundary. "