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Russian Invasion of Baltics by 2024

Ukraine Conflict


On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In January 2021, the German Council on Foreign Relations released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:

Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and actions. In breaching the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, it has deployed new ground-based, intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles. For the first time in almost 30 years, large parts of Europe face a potential nuclear threat from Russian soil. [...] A considerable number of strategy experts believe that Russia is preparing for regional wars in its strategic neighborhood, in particular in the Baltic and Black Sea regions.

Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if, between February 26, 2022 and December 31, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that more than 100 Russian ground troops have entered Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.

From the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from February 26, 2022 to December 31, 2023.

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