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Chinese pressure on Taiwan's airspace

Flourishing Futures China and Global Cooperation

Question

On October 4, 2021, there were 56 Chinese warplanes that flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was largest incursion since the island first started reporting such activity in September 2020, as reported by Statista, based on information from Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. Whilst there has not been more aircraft on a single day, the high numbers of incursions have become a more persistent phenomenon.

This is a list of all days with more than 30 incursions, as of 28th February 2022:

  • October 1st 2021 - 38

  • October 2nd 2021 - 39

  • October 4th 2021 - 56

  • January 23rd 2022 - 39

Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if on any single day in 2022 the total number of aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) reported by R.O.C Ministry of National Defense exceeds 60 on a single day.

Resolution will be based on the daily Air activities in the southwestern ADIZ of R.O.C. (我西南空域空情動態) reports published by the R.O.C.'s Ministry of National Defense at www.mnd.gov.tw.

This website is available in Chinese only. See our tips for convenient ways of working with Chinese-language resources using machine translation. The PDF reports themselves are Chinese-English and should be usable without translation.

Each report contains listing of types of aircraft detected with corresponding counts. Example from the Feb 28, 2022 report:

一、日期 Date:

中華民國 111 年 2 月 28 日(星期一 日間)

February 28,2022(Monday daytime)

二、機型 Aircraft Type:

運-8 反潛機 1 架次(One Y-8 ASW)

殲-16 機 4 架次(Four J-16)

殲-10 機 2 架次(Two J-10)

Total aircraft number of aircraft is computed by summing the numbers for all types of aircraft reported. In this case, it would be 1+4+2 = 7. If there are multiple reports for the same day (e.g. separate daytime and nighttime report), the numbers from these reports will be added up to form the total.

The ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s national airspace. Flying within the ADIZ means Taiwan will monitor and warn aircraft. Only those that cross the median line (shown on the MND reports) are reported since the ADIZ crosses into Chinese airspace.

Categories:
Geopolitics

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