Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?
Following concerns about privacy of its citizens, the European Union enacted the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), forcing websites serving European citizens to adhere to certain standards of user consent, data transparency, and user information access and erasure.
Big companies especially have spent a long time and much money preparing for the law, which came into effect in May, 2018. Several large companies have already received claims that they are not in compliance with the regulation.
This question resolves positively only if a European or US company with a market cap of over 50 billion nominal USD is fined at least 1 million nominal USD (cumulatively) for GDPR violations by end-of-day Dec 31, 2021 Eastern Time .
The market cap requirement (as specified by the intraday value on, for example, Yahoo finance) can be met at any point in time by the end date specified above for the company to qualify. "European or US" can be determined using e.g. Forbes' list or comparable data source.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.