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NATO Member to Call for Hungary's Expulsion

Ukraine Conflict


As Politico reports:

"Hungary will not allow the transit of lethal weapons to Ukraine through its territory." [...] "Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — who is facing a tough parliamentary election on April 3, 2022 — has insisted over the past days that his country must “stay out” of the conflict and that Hungary itself will not supply weapons to its neighbor."

Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an analysis by Just Security NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:

Should the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention.

Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if at least one head of state or head of government in a NATO member country calls for Hungary to be expelled from NATO, at any time from March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024. This does not need to occur through a formal legal process or through the invocation of Article 60(2).

This question will resolve based on reputable media reports.

Edit March 2, 2022: "Senior government official" has now been updated to read "head of state or head of government."

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