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22 comments
478 forecasters

Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

0.2%chance
0.2%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:Mar 2, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 2, 2022
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

5% chance
94

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States
30%
Poland
30%
Lithuania
29%
9 others
33 forecasters

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

97% chance
95
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