Question

Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?

Resolved:No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters562

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.6

Community Peer Score

5.1

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Russian attacks kill dozens of Ukrainians as Kyiv’s allies gather for a key NATO summit

CNN•Jun 24, 2025

Zelensky blasts NATO members' 'slow' spending increase, warning Putin could attack within five years ahead of meeting with Trump at alliance summit

Daily Mail•Jun 24, 2025

Zelenskyy warns Russia could attack a Nato member within five years as summit waits for Trump’s arrival – Europe live

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

20%

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Russian attacks kill dozens of Ukrainians as Kyiv’s allies gather for a key NATO summit

CNN•Jun 24, 2025

Zelensky blasts NATO members' 'slow' spending increase, warning Putin could attack within five years ahead of meeting with Trump at alliance summit

Daily Mail•Jun 24, 2025

Zelenskyy warns Russia could attack a Nato member within five years as summit waits for Trump’s arrival – Europe live

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

20%

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%