Question

By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Resolved:Yes

110 comments110

Total Forecasters716

Community Prediction

25%

(10% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

-1.2

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Human rights court to make landmark ruling over Russia’s responsibility for Ukraine war

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Landmark ruling made over Russia’s responsibility for downing flight MH17

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Russia has committed flagrant human rights abuses in Ukraine since 2014, rules ECHR

Guardian•Jul 10, 2025

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Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?

67%

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

85%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Human rights court to make landmark ruling over Russia’s responsibility for Ukraine war

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Landmark ruling made over Russia’s responsibility for downing flight MH17

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Russia has committed flagrant human rights abuses in Ukraine since 2014, rules ECHR

Guardian•Jul 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?

67%

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

85%