Question

Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?

Resolved:No

5 comments5

Total Forecasters136

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.4

Community Peer Score

9.2

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 8, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 7, 2022

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump with NATO ‘all the way’ on Article 5 as leaders gather at summit

Al Jazeera•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

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