5 comments
19 forecasters
When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jun 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 20, 2022
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
1 forecaster
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?
16 Oct 2027
(24 Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
16 Oct 2027
(24 Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
3 forecasters
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
9 forecasters