225 comments

897 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Red Lines in Ukraine

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Terrifying moment kamikaze drone blows up Ukrainian university - as Zelensky calls on Europe to create an air defence 'umbrella'

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Russia shows off conventional and nuclear military might in drills — and raises tensions with NATO

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

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