Question

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved:No

225 comments225

Total Forecasters897

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

11.9

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Travel to ukraine

•Jul 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.9%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Travel to ukraine

•Jul 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.9%