Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Radiation Incident in Ukraine by 2024

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

Question

According to Wikipedia:

"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt." The prime example of a "major nuclear accident" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

Russian military forces seized Chernobyl during the first day of the Ukrainian invasion as well as Zaporizhzhia, the largest nuclear plant of its kind in Europe, during the seventh day.

Fighting near nuclear power plants could possibly mean an increased risk of a serious radiation incident. Thus we ask:

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024?

The question will be resolved positively if at any time between March 4, 2022 and December 31, 2023 the International Atomic Energy Agency reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.