225 comments

897 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Red Lines in Ukraine

2022-2023 Leaderboard

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

Ukraine Launches Drone Barrage on Russian Oil Refinery

Newsweek•Sep 14, 2025

Ukraine targets key Russian oil refinery as Moscow tests hypersonic missile

Al Jazeera•Sep 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch