Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Resolved:No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters401

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

4.2

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Jun 29, 2022

Resolves:

Jun 30, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

'Time to get serious on defense': A moment of truth for NATO as leaders seek unity on spending hike

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Mar 7, 2022

Closes:

Jun 29, 2022

Resolves:

Jun 30, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

'Time to get serious on defense': A moment of truth for NATO as leaders seek unity on spending hike

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%