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24
132
forecasters
12
24 comments
132 forecasters
Technology
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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?
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32%
chance
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Who gets nukes by 2035?
Iran
21%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
Poland
5%
6 others
34 comments
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Non-state actor develops a nuke by 2030
1%
chance
0 comments
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Non-state actor acquires a nuke by 2030
1.6%
chance
4 comments
8 forecasters
Israel GNI/capita in 2031 if Iran bomb
Current estimate
118 k$