Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters94

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

community: 70%

median 70.0%mean 68.1%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Nuclear weapon

Politics of Iran

Geopolitics

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

56%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?

59%

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Nuclear weapon

Politics of Iran

Geopolitics

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

56%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?

59%