Question

Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?

Resolved :No

194 comments194

Total Forecasters1269

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

83.5

Community Peer Score

13.8

median 0.5%mean 1.4%

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Regime change

Russia

Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

14%

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

21%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Regime change

Russia

Putin Faces Economic Risks His Energy Holdings May Not Prevent

Forbes•Oct 8, 2024

Russian TV Host Says Country Will Be 'Just Fine' if Putin Dies

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Kursk offensive: As Ukraine’s incursion into Russia enters third month, Putin is trying to downplay it

CNN•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

14%

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

21%