Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Russian Coup or Regime Change by 2024

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

Question

Wikipedia defines a coup in the following way:

A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.

Their definition of regime change is similar:

Regime change is the forcible or coerced replacement of one government regime with another. Regime change may replace all or part of the state's most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or bureaucracy.

A coup or regime change of the Russian government would likely have a significant impact on the 2022 military conflict in Ukraine.

Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?

This question will resolve as Yes if, any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 6 of the following 10 sources publish a public report or article claiming that either a "coup" or "regime change" has taken place in Russia:

This question will not resolve as Yes if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any successor of Putin) voluntarily resigns during this period.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.