Wikipedia defines a coup in the following way:
A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.
Their definition of regime change is similar:
Regime change is the forcible or coerced replacement of one government regime with another. Regime change may replace all or part of the state's most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or bureaucracy.
A coup or regime change of the Russian government would likely have a significant impact on the 2022 military conflict in Ukraine.
Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if, any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 6 of the following 10 sources publish a public report or article claiming that either a "coup" or "regime change" has taken place in Russia:
- The Economist
- The New York Times
- The Associated Press
- The Guardian
- The BBC
- Al Jazeera
- South China Morning Post
- The Institute for the Study of War
- International Crisis Group
This question will not resolve as Yes if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any successor of Putin) voluntarily resigns during this period.