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12 comments
198 forecasters

How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?

community
>5M
result
More than 5M
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Gaia
Opened:Mar 15, 2022
Closes:Jun 30, 2022
Resolved:May 3, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2022
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
🏆 2022 Leaderboard

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days
53.8%
91 days or more
20.5%
61-90 days
11.6%
2 others
90 forecasters

What will be Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) in 2027?

1.33 births/woman
(1.18 - 1.5)
1.33 births/woman
(1.18 - 1.5)
48 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026
97.7%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
2%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0.1%
2 others
95 forecasters
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