Question

Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?

Resolved:No

11 comments11

Total Forecasters206

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.1

Community Peer Score

14.9

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Mar 14, 2022

Closes:

Jul 31, 2022

Resolves:

Aug 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2022

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

13%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Mar 14, 2022

Closes:

Jul 31, 2022

Resolves:

Aug 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2022

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

13%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%