Question

Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?

Resolved :No

40 comments40

Total Forecasters707

Community Prediction1%

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community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.7

Community Peer Score

22.0

median 1.0%mean 1.6%

Authors:

stanulamstan havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Mapped: Russia advances in Donetsk as it claims to have captured Ukrainian settlements Zolota Nyva and Zhelanna Pershe

Independent•Oct 9, 2024

Mapped: Russia advances in Donetsk as it claims to have captured Ukrainian settlements Zolota Nyva and Zhelanna Pershe

Independent•Oct 10, 2024

Mapped: Russia advances in Donetsk as it claims to have captured Ukrainian settlements Zolota Nyva and Zhelanna Pershe

Independent•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%