computing precise contingencies generating intelligent wisdom modeling definitive forecasts assembling probable futures modeling critical wisdom mapping the future computing intelligent contingencies aggregating predictive forecasts calculating contingent estimations mapping quantitative predictions mapping intelligent understanding aggregating contingent estimations modeling critical wisdom exploring quantitative predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes?

As of June 20, 2018, the entire Red Planet has been ensnarled in dust. Yikes! Here's USA Today with the gory details:

A giant dust storm has enveloped the entire planet of Mars, with dust clouds reaching up to 40 miles high, NASA announced Wednesday. The dust storm has silenced NASA's solar-powered rover Opportunity since last week, by obscuring the sun. The robot rover has gone to sleep because its solar panels are unable to provide or recharge its batteries. But NASA's other Martian rover, Curiosity, is nuclear powered and is mostly unaffected by the dust storm.

In case you want to read amazing details about these beastly storms, check this video out.

Will the plucky rover known as Opportunity make it out of this storm alive?

Here's what has to report:

the dust is incredibly thick over Endeavour Crater — thicker than anything Opportunity has dealt with before, mission team members said. Opportunity is now enduring complete darkness 24 hours a day, and its power levels have dropped precipitously as a result — from 645 watt-hours on June 2 to about 22 watt-hours on Sunday (June 10)

As a result, says Ray Arvidson, an investigator on the rover mission, "Opportunity is now likely in a low-power mode, "in which the rover wakes up, checks its power and, if too low, just goes back to sleep again," according to Inside Outer Space.

"At some point as the storm subsides, Opportunity should wake up, decide it has enough power to transmit a signal from its low-gain antenna, saying, 'I am awake and OK, but I am going back to sleep again,'" he added. "This should happen every sol until it decides to go back to full operation."

Question resolves positive if NASA manages to make contact again with Opportunity after the storm passes. Godspeed, little rover!


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.