Question

Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?

Resolved:Yes

65 comments65

Total Forecasters438

Community Prediction

82%

(71% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 82%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

-0.1

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Aug 16, 2022

Resolves:

Aug 16, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2022

Russia 'On the Brink Of' Recession Says Economy Minister

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Russia’s on ‘the brink of recession,’ country’s economy minister says

PBS NewsHour•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

15%

Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?

30%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Aug 16, 2022

Resolves:

Aug 16, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2022

Russia 'On the Brink Of' Recession Says Economy Minister

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Russia’s on ‘the brink of recession,’ country’s economy minister says

PBS NewsHour•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

15%

Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?

30%