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If WW3 before 2060, will US and India ally?

In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars on the side of the allies.

Recently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?

If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?

For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:

  • The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had de facto control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of "world war" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).

  • The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had de facto control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.

  • Two governments are said to be "on the same side" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.

  • A "great power" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.

  • The world is said to be in a state of "world war" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.

  • World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.

This question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3.


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