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Member Since
- November 28, 2018
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Forecaster Stats
Level
12 (Prophet)
Predictions
1449 predictions on 392 questions (207 resolved)
Comments
601 comments on 241 questions
Rank
147th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
17992 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (35)
- Politics – US (34)
- Effective Altruism (33)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (26)
- Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) (20)
Popular Questions
- Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? (1191 forecasts)
- Longbets series: By 2029, will a computer have passed the Turing Test? (977 forecasts)
- When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (910 forecasts)
- Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? (793 forecasts)
- Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030) (692 forecasts)