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- November 28, 2018
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Forecaster Stats
Level
12 (Prophet)
Predictions
1488 predictions on 395 questions (210 resolved)
Comments
605 comments on 242 questions
Rank
154th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
19986 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Politics – US (35)
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (35)
- Effective Altruism (33)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (27)
- Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) (20)
Popular Questions
- When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (1644 forecasts)
- Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? (1191 forecasts)
- Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? (1175 forecasts)
- Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030) (942 forecasts)
- Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? (793 forecasts)