Question

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

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Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction1%

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community: 1.4%

median 1.4%mean 7.1%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Federation of American Scientists

Earth

Global Zero (campaign)

Deterrence theory

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

3.3k

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Federation of American Scientists

Earth

Global Zero (campaign)

Deterrence theory

America Is Updating Its Nuclear Weapons. The Price: $1.7 Trillion. - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 10, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

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How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

3.3k

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%