🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

10
14
Total Forecasters67
Community Prediction2059-08-10 (2033-02-28 - 2199-08-17)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2199-12-30
...
...
...
...
2033-02-28 19:22
2059-08-10 09:19
2199-08-17 15:02
24.9%
Authors:
marius.hobbhahn
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AGI Outcomes
Artificial Intelligence
Nobel Prize

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