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33 comments
431 forecasters

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
casens
Opened:Mar 23, 2022
Closes:May 31, 2022
Resolved:Jun 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 23, 2022
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Autocrat Public Figures Series
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Guardian logo
Display of firepower in Russia-Belarus war games stirs unease across Europe
Guardian•Sep 15, 2025
Newsweek logo
Ukraine Launches Drone Barrage on Russian Oil Refinery
Newsweek•Sep 14, 2025
CNN logo
Russia-Belarus military drill tests nerves on NATO’s eastern flank at the end of a tense week
CNN•Sep 12, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40% chance
91

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance
195

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

3% chance
409
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