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Belarussian Invasion of Ukraine by June 2022

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Autocrat Public Figures Series Improve the News

Question

In the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict.

In March 2022, Ukranian officials accused Russia of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to Fox News on March 23, 2022, saying "We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus".

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

This question will resolve as "Yes" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 Permanent members of the UN security council or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukranian territory" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders as of January 1, 2014. The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022.

If no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as "No".

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