Question
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    •

    • Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Belarussian Invasion of Ukraine by June 2022

    Created by casens and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining
    Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Autocrat Public Figures Series Improve the News

    In the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict.

    In March 2022, Ukranian officials accused Russia of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

    Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to Fox News on March 23, 2022, saying "We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus".

    Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

    This question will resolve as "Yes" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 Permanent members of the UN security council or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukranian territory" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders as of January 1, 2014. The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022.

    If no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as "No".

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    Ukraine

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.