151 comments

648 forecasters

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 25, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 2, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 26, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

🏆 2022 Leaderboard

Ukraine hits Russian chemical plant with British Storm Shadow missiles

Independent•Oct 22, 2025

Ukraine says UK-made Storm Shadow missiles joined its long mission to destroy Russia's war machine from the rear

Business Insider•Oct 22, 2025

Ukraine Says It Struck a Chemical Plant Inside Russia With British-Provided Storm Shadow Missiles

AntiWar•Oct 22, 2025

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