151 comments

648 forecasters

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 25, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 2, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 26, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022 Leaderboard

'It is time to call Putin's WW3 bluff': Russia's drone incursions are the signal NATO must now join the fight in Ukraine or risk European invasion, experts warn

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Russia raises tensions with NATO as Putin shows off his battlefield nuclear weapons

Independent•Sep 16, 2025

Russia shows off conventional and nuclear military might in drills — and raises tensions with NATO

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

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