Question

Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction

81%

(71% - 89%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

64.5

Community Peer Score

8.8

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Aug 19, 2018

Closes:

Nov 1, 2018

Resolves:

Nov 16, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2018

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

Dec 2034

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

47.2%

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

02 Jan 2025

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Aug 19, 2018

Closes:

Nov 1, 2018

Resolves:

Nov 16, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2018

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

Dec 2034

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

47.2%

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

02 Jan 2025